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Thailand — Climate-Food Risk

Live climate intelligence for Thailand: ENSO sensitivity, crop exposure, commodity markets, and food security risk. Data from GDACS, Open-Meteo, World Bank, and IPC Global.

ENSO Impact on Thailand

Thailand is the world's second-largest rice exporter and highly sensitive to ENSO-driven rainfall variability in the Chao Phraya river basin. El Niño events bring drought to the Central Plains, Thailand's primary rice-growing region, while La Niña brings excess rainfall and flooding. The 2011 floods — strengthened by La Niña — caused $45 billion in agricultural losses and disrupted global rice supply for two seasons.

Current ENSO phase: Neutral (ONI +0.2°C). For Thailand, neutral conditions mean broadly average rainfall for the central plains, with monitoring focused on early-season precipitation ahead of main crop planting. Live ENSO status and ONI index tracking is available on the platform.

Agricultural Commodity Exposure

Thailand is a significant world's second-largest rice exporter of Rice, Rubber, Sugar, Cassava, Shrimp. Climate-driven production variability in Thailand creates measurable price signals in global commodity markets within 2–6 months of significant weather events.

• Primary commodities: Rice, Rubber, Sugar, Cassava, Shrimp
• ENSO sensitivity: High — production correlates significantly with Pacific SST anomalies
• Price signal lag: typically 2–6 months from weather event to market impact
• Supply chain risk: elevated during ENSO phase transitions

Food Security Risk

Thailand maintains IPC Phase 2 — adequate food access at a national level, though rural agricultural communities face income stress when rice yields disappoint. Thai rice prices are a global benchmark; any production shock is immediately reflected in international markets.

El Niño One Wave tracks IPC phase updates for Thailand alongside live climate data. When ENSO-driven anomalies intersect with existing food insecurity, compound risk can escalate rapidly. The Crisis Signal Map on the live platform shows current conditions.

Live Monitoring — Thailand

• GDACS disaster events: active events affecting Thailand and surrounding region
• Agricultural temperature anomaly: departure from 1991–2020 seasonal mean
• Commodity price tracker: Rice, Rubber, Sugar, Cassava, Shrimp — monthly World Bank data
• ENSO phase and ONI index trajectory
• IPC food security phase — updated as classifications are published