Data Methodology

Version 1.0 · June 2026 · Open methodology — free to cite with attribution

1. Data Sources

GDACS — Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
European Commission JRC · Near real-time (hourly polling) · Public API
Active disaster event detection: Tropical Cyclone (TC), Flood (FL), Wildfire (WF), Earthquake (EQ), Volcano (VO), Drought (DR). Events at alert levels Orange and Red are displayed. Severity score mapped: Green=2, Orange=4, Red=5.
Open-Meteo
Open-Meteo.com · Hourly · Free public API · No API key required
Current surface temperature (2m), precipitation, and wind speed at 6 fixed agricultural zone monitoring points. Temperature anomalies calculated as departure from the 1991–2020 climatological monthly mean for each coordinate.
World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet)
World Bank · Monthly (2–4 week lag) · Public API
Monthly commodity price indices for wheat (PWHEAT), corn (PMAIZMT), soybeans (PSOYB), coffee (PCOFFOTM), rice (PRICENPQ) in nominal USD. Month-on-month percentage change calculated from two most recent values.
NOAA CPC — Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
NOAA Climate Prediction Center · Monthly · Public tables
3-month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W) relative to centred 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. ONI values in the platform are updated monthly from NOAA's published tables.
IPC Global — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
IPC Global Partners · Periodic country-level updates · Public reports
Food security phase overlays (Phases 1–5) on the Crisis Signal Map. Classifications reflect the most recent publicly available IPC analysis per region. Phase 4 = Emergency. Phase 5 = Famine.
FEWS NET — Famine Early Warning Systems Network
USAID · Monthly outlook reports · Public
Narrative food security context in Signal Feed articles. FEWS NET classifications are referenced with full source attribution.

2. Calculations

ENSO Phase Classification

El Niño: ONI ≥ +0.5°C for ≥5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods La Niña: ONI ≤ −0.5°C for ≥5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods Neutral: −0.5°C < ONI < +0.5°C Strength: Moderate: ±0.5°C to ±0.9°C Strong: ±1.0°C to ±1.4°C Very Strong: ≥ ±1.5°C

Follows NOAA CPC standard definitions.

Agricultural Temperature Anomaly

Anomaly (°C) = T_current − T_climatological_mean T_climatological_mean = 1991–2020 monthly mean at monitoring coordinate Significance threshold: |anomaly| ≥ 1.5°C flagged as potential crop stress

Commodity Price Change

MoM Change (%) = ((P_latest − P_previous) / P_previous) × 100 P_latest = most recent World Bank monthly value P_previous = immediately preceding monthly value

Crisis-to-Commodity Impact Estimates

Directional impact estimates in the Impact Chain are derived from: (1) historical ENSO-commodity price correlation analysis 1985–2024; (2) published research cited in the Science Hub; (3) current event severity and affected region agricultural exposure; (4) expert assessment of supply disruption magnitude. These are directional assessments — not precise price forecasts.

3. Agricultural Monitoring Locations

4. Limitations

⚠ Commodity price lag

World Bank Pink Sheet data published with 2–4 week lag. Not real-time market prices. For futures data: configure Alpha Vantage API key in platform settings (My Wave).

⚠ Agricultural monitoring is point-based

Temperature anomalies measured at single-point coordinates. Not gridded spatial averages. May not reflect conditions across an entire agricultural region.

⚠ Impact estimates are directional only

Crisis-to-commodity impact estimates indicate likely direction of price movement based on historical patterns. Not precise forecasts. Many factors influence commodity markets beyond the events tracked here.

⚠ GDACS event coverage gaps

GDACS covers internationally-reported events. Slow-onset events (progressive drought) and events in regions with limited reporting infrastructure may not appear.

5. Citation Guidelines

All El Niño One Wave data is free to use, reproduce, and cite. No permission required.

Standard citation
El Niño One Wave (2026). [Data description]. El Niño One Wave Climate Intelligence Platform. Retrieved [date] from https://elnino-onewave.pages.dev
Press shortform
Data: El Niño One Wave (elnino-onewave.pages.dev)
APA academic
El Niño One Wave. (2026). Climate-commodity impact intelligence [Data set]. https://elnino-onewave.pages.dev/methodology

Data enquiries: data@elnino-onewave.pages.dev